Comments on: Do Decision Making Techniques Really Work? http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/ Economics. Data. Software. Fri, 15 Oct 2010 05:46:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 By: Eric http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/comment-page-1/#comment-83 Eric Thu, 04 Oct 2007 20:29:31 +0000 http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/#comment-83 The Situationist is a great blog and that article was right on. Thanks. The Situationist is a great blog and that article was right on. Thanks.

]]> By: zot http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/comment-page-1/#comment-82 zot Thu, 04 Oct 2007 17:33:24 +0000 http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/#comment-82 Hey Eric. I just ran across this article at <a href="http://thesituationist.wordpress.com/2007/10/04/cant-get-no-satisfaction-the-law-students-job-hunt-part-i/" rel="nofollow">The Situationist</a> that talks about the distinction between maximizing and satisficing decision makers. Maximizers perform and exhaustive search for information, while satisficers pick the first option that seems to satisfy. Maybe the reason that you find the life decisions so difficult is that you are a maximizer, but the information you are trying to gather is so fluid it is impossible to arrive at a conclusion. Excellent point also that when talking about 'better' decisions we need to have metrics by which to evaluate. I tend to just go with 'if it feels good after I did it, then it was right', but that's not very amenable to analysis. Hey Eric. I just ran across this article at The Situationist that talks about the distinction between maximizing and satisficing decision makers.
Maximizers perform and exhaustive search for information, while satisficers pick the first option that seems to satisfy.
Maybe the reason that you find the life decisions so difficult is that you are a maximizer, but the information you are trying to gather is so fluid it is impossible to arrive at a conclusion.

Excellent point also that when talking about ‘better’ decisions we need to have metrics by which to evaluate. I tend to just go with ‘if it feels good after I did it, then it was right’, but that’s not very amenable to analysis.

]]> By: Eric http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/comment-page-1/#comment-81 Eric Thu, 04 Oct 2007 15:23:30 +0000 http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/#comment-81 Zot, you can probably guess my take on this. Your writing triggered me to think about an interesting loop: Suppose I want to make a "good" decision. So I go looking for some strategies. Hopefully those strategies will have a causal inpact on what my final decision is (otherwise, why use a strategy at all?). But how do I choose a decision making technique? That can be a hard decision......and so the loop goes. But aside from that digression, to tell if decision making techniques help us make "better" decisions, there must be some measure of sucess. In some areas that might be easy--investors might simply care about how much monry they make. But personal decisions seem much tougher to evaluate. Should I decide to start a family or pursue a career? What is the measure of a "good" decision? happiness? wealth? health? in what time frame for comparing these outcomes (1, 5, 50 years)? The blog is great. My favorite part about it is that it's stimulating and makes me think about this stuff in a concrete way. Keep it up! Zot, you can probably guess my take on this. Your writing triggered me to think about an interesting loop:

Suppose I want to make a “good” decision. So I go looking for some strategies. Hopefully those strategies will have a causal inpact on what my final decision is (otherwise, why use a strategy at all?). But how do I choose a decision making technique? That can be a hard decision……and so the loop goes.

But aside from that digression, to tell if decision making techniques help us make “better” decisions, there must be some measure of sucess. In some areas that might be easy–investors might simply care about how much monry they make.

But personal decisions seem much tougher to evaluate. Should I decide to start a family or pursue a career? What is the measure of a “good” decision? happiness? wealth? health? in what time frame for comparing these outcomes (1, 5, 50 years)?

The blog is great. My favorite part about it is that it’s stimulating and makes me think about this stuff in a concrete way. Keep it up!

]]> By: zot http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/comment-page-1/#comment-80 zot Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:58:05 +0000 http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/#comment-80 Jeff: I think you're right in a sort of general sense that it is better to question, but I still wonder whether we can really ultimately do anything consciously to correct the unconscious processes that bias us in one direction or the other. Maybe the real answer lies in moderating the information we take in so that our perceptions are equally affected in all directions or something like that. Not that it's a realistic idea. Good thoughts, thanks. Jeff:
I think you’re right in a sort of general sense that it is better to question, but I still wonder whether we can really ultimately do anything consciously to correct the unconscious processes that bias us in one direction or the other.

Maybe the real answer lies in moderating the information we take in so that our perceptions are equally affected in all directions or something like that. Not that it’s a realistic idea.

Good thoughts, thanks.

]]> By: Jeffrey Ellis http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/comment-page-1/#comment-77 Jeffrey Ellis Tue, 02 Oct 2007 18:35:25 +0000 http://blog.potterzot.com/2007/10/02/do-decision-making-techniques-really-work/#comment-77 The very fact that you asked yourself these questions indicates that you are working to overcome the kinds of biases you point out. Questioning your real basis for making a decision (or justifying a decision you've really already made) is the sign of someone who is introspectively examining his/her thought processes to avoid biases. It's the person who is *not* questioning his/her thought processes that we need to worry about. Jeff The very fact that you asked yourself these questions indicates that you are working to overcome the kinds of biases you point out. Questioning your real basis for making a decision (or justifying a decision you’ve really already made) is the sign of someone who is introspectively examining his/her thought processes to avoid biases. It’s the person who is *not* questioning his/her thought processes that we need to worry about.

Jeff

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